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Projections: U.S. & Nursing Home Populations |
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| Actual | Projections | ||
|
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
|
| Total U.S. Population* |
308,746,000 |
341,387,000 |
373,504,000 |
|
Rate of change |
10.57% |
9.41% |
|
| 65 and Older Population** |
40,267,000 |
54,804,000 |
72,092,000 |
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Rate of change |
36.10% |
31.55% |
|
| Nursing Home Resident Population*** |
1,401,718 |
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|
Residents 65 and older**** |
1,205,477 |
1,640,673 |
2,158,226 |
| * U.S. 2010 Census | |||
| ** U.S. Census 2008 “Projections and Distribution of the Total Population by Age for the United States: 2010 to 2050″ |
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| *** CDC “Health, United States, 2010, table 117″ | |||
| **** npg.org estimates that 86 percent of nursing home residents are senior citizens; Projections for “Residents 65 and Older” were calculated by applying 2010′s Actual “Nursing Home Resident Population” to that estimate. That finding was then applied to both 2020 and 2030′s “Residents 65 and Older Rate of Change” to estimate both years Baby Boomer nursing home occupancy. | |||
The nursing home industry is one plagued with a very big problem: 90 percent of nursing homes are understaffed, making staff to patient ratios too low according to the Centers for Disease Control’s (CDC) National Nursing Home Survey: 2004 Overview. Said report found there was only: 1 Registered Nurse for every 12.6 residents; 1 Practical Nurse for every 8.15 residents; 1 Nursing Assistant for every 2.5 residents; and 1 Nursing Aide/Orderly for every 120 residents. What this translates to is 1 nursing home staff member for every 1.64 residents.
As a result of inadequate staffing levels, the amount of time staff members spend with residents is also inadequate. A Health and Human Services (HHS) study in 2002 found that nursing homes could maximize quality of care if specific staff members met the following daily requirements of time spent with residents: Certified Nursing Assistants spent between 2.4 hours and 2.8 hours daily; Registered Nurses & Licensed Practical Nurses spent between 1.15 hours and 1.4 hours daily; and Registered Nurses spent .55 hours to .75 hours daily with each resident. However, the study found that given the current state of nursing home staffs, if said requirements were applied, only 3 percent of nursing homes would meet the maximum requirements and only 9 percent would meet the minimum requirements.
All of this data was representative of the nursing home population before Baby Boomers began to become senior citizens. Baby boomers began to be classified as such in 2011 and will continue to enter that age category through 2029. Future senior citizen populations applied to nursing homes can be seen in the above chart. Easily seen is this chart is that the senior citizen population increases in 2020, mid-Baby Boomer subversion, and in 2030, one year after full Baby Boomer subversion. And given that understaffing is a primary cause of both abuse and neglect in nursing homes, the increased demand Baby Boomers will put on a disordered industry may cause an increase in nursing home abuse and neglect. Additionally, elder abuse and neglect in general may increase, as people who would normally have placed their elder into a nursing home will be left with no choice but to care for the elder themselves.
Allison Dean is a writer bringing to us how the problems of nursing home abuse and neglect could be exacerbated by the Baby Boomer population’s demand for long-term care.
Allison also writes about 
